# Graphical Trends

From analyzing the graph, yearly death rates attributed to most causes are on the decline. However, unintentional injuries, suicide,  and Alzheimer's disease have seen a slight increase each year.

Lower death rates for most cases shouldn't come as a surprise thanks to enhanced medicine over the years.

As for unintentional injuries and suicide, the rise has been attributable to primary rural regions of America. This is in part attributable to the lower availability of critical access hospitals, higher insurance costs in rural areas, and a higher percentage of population without health care insurance. This means that those who require medical attention for their conditions are unable to get the help they need in a timely manner.

Moreover, during 2005 states around the Gulf of Mexico see slightly larger increases in death rates attributable to Huricane Katrina

Alzheimer's disease has also seen a general rise in more populated areas; indicative of higher elderly populations in the dense urban areas.

# MACHINE LEARNING APPROACH

To create a model of average age-adjusted death rate (R) across America, raw data collected across disease types were used to create a linear regression algorithm. Every year from 1999 to 2016 was included the dataset. In coding the algorithm, five variables were accounted for: intercept of age-adjusted death rate, the coefficient relating the change in age-adjusted death rate each year, the mean absolute error, mean squared error, and the mean squared standard deviation.

Unintentional Injuries

R'(y) = 0.52167321(y) - 1003.98845273

Mean Absolute Error: 7.650949215641035

Mean Squared Error: 94.06614171073485

Mean Squared Deviation: 9.698770113304823

Alzheimer's Disease

R'(y) = 0.41606881(y) - 811.17078822

Mean Absolute Error: 5.251257168888944

Mean Squared Error: 45.555359662876135

Mean Squared Deviation: 6.749471065415136

Cancer

R'(y) = -2.48294559(y) + 5163.24389368

Mean Absolute Error: 12.461065645280229

Mean Squared Error: 260.61039487862547

Mean Squared Deviation: 16.143431942391476

CLRD

R'(y) = -0.16867699(y) + 383.53334248

Mean Absolute Error: 7.037953376863864

Mean Squared Error: 84.83662737297024

Mean Squared Deviation: 9.210680071144054

Diabetes

R'(y) = -0.32662369(y) + 678.86016978

Mean Absolute Error: 3.503380067601272

Mean Squared Error: 21.59991423710236

Mean Squared Deviation: 4.647570788821012

Heart Disease

R'(y) = -5.25482869(y) + 10748.85008236

Mean Absolute Error: 28.03850744403835

Mean Squared Error: 1157.5251184729516

Mean Squared Deviation: 34.02242082029072

Influenza

R'(y) = -0.58340919(y) + 1189.78738972

Mean Absolute Error: 3.1869381039070093

Mean Squared Error: 15.692953288287416

Mean Squared Deviation: 3.9614332366313354

Kidney Disease

R'(y) = -0.06281374(y) + 140.12293582

Mean Absolute Error: 3.974405145287224

Mean Squared Error: 23.48589110628689

Mean Squared Deviation: 4.84622441765617

Stroke

R'(y) = -1.69258775(y) + 3443.62658063

Mean Absolute Error: 6.042120832081112

Mean Squared Error: 57.67829794715673

Mean Squared Deviation: 7.594622962804456

Suicide

R'(y) = 0.229139(y) - 446.70630035

Mean Absolute Error: 2.79061362428879

Mean Squared Error: 13.575142995317591

Mean Squared Deviation: 3.684446090705846

2018 Carolina Data Challenge | Health Data Set

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